ADP vs. Reality
Understanding ADP — what it takes to finish QB1, RB10, WR25
What does it actually take to finish as the QB1? The RB10? The WR25? Below: the season point totals at every single positional finish over the last 10 seasons (2016–2025) — the low, the high, the average, and who did it the last three years — for as deep as each position currently gets drafted. Plus, for each finish: where those players were actually drafted (true Underdog best-ball ADP from Best Ball Mania, 2021–2025) and how often the rosters that drafted them advanced. Then: the biggest takeaways for drafting each position.
Where the league-winners live
What it takes to finish at each QB rank
| Finish | 10-Yr Range | 10-Yr Avg | Finisher ADP · BBM ’21–’25 | Adv Rate · ’21–’25 |
|---|
The positional decay curve
Average season points (gold) with the 10-year low–high band (shaded) at each benchmark finish. The steeper the early drop, the more the top of the position is worth paying up for.
Biggest takeaways
What a decade of finish data and five years of Best Ball Mania advance rates say about drafting the position. Advance rate = share of BBM rosters holding the player that advanced out of the regular season (baseline: 16.7%).
The cross-position headline: the four positional No. 1s rank RB1/WR1 (~36% advance) > QB1/TE1 (~27%) — but their costs rank pick 10 / pick 14 / pick 40 / pick 69. On advance-rate-per-dollar, elite QB and TE are the bargains; elite RB and WR are the prizes you pay full freight for.
One honest caveat: these are outcome-conditional numbers — given that a player finished at a slot, how his drafters fared. They tell you which outcomes are worth chasing, not the odds any given pick gets there. Hit rates by draft slot are part two of this study.